Melo Effect Part 4 - Shot Selection

     The biggest overall positive for the Rockets as a team since Melo left, is the improvement in shot selection. Carmelo Anthony is known to be one of the greatest mid-range shooters of our generation, but one of the biggest mysteries heading into the season was if he could adjust his shot selection to fit the “Moreyball” philosophies (3’s, layups/duks, free throws). If we take a look at the shot chart for one of Melo’s better games, in which he had 17 points and 7 rebounds, on 57% shooting, you can see that the Rockets took 12 mid-range shots and a lot of little floaters around the basket:

Rockets vs. Bulls Shot Chart

     Even though they won the game, the chart shows that the advantage we once had through Moreyball, was gone. Losing that advantage was one of the biggest reasons, in my opinion, why the Rockets struggled out of the gate. This past couple weeks, the Rockets have started looking like themselves again. They have finally found a rotation that works, and everyone looks comfortable out on the court. The signature moment of their past run has been the game vs the Wizards where they broke the record for most 3-pointers made in a game, with 26. Here is the shot chart from that game: 

Rockets vs. Wizards Shot Chart

     The chart shows that they only took one mid-range shot the entire game, and only one floater around the basket. This is more like what Morey envisioned the chart looking like and getting back to this Moreyball shot selection is one of the biggest reasons why we have been streaking lately. I believe that removing Melo from the equation is the prime reason why we were able to cut out the mid-range shots and gain back our Moreyball advantage through shot selection.

Melo Effect Part 3 - Harden & CP3

     The biggest thing that worries me about Melo’s departure is the higher dependence on Harden and Paul. Seeing Harden flame out in Game 6 against the Spurs two years ago really left a bad taste in my mouth, and marks the exact time and place that I started caring about how the minutes for the star players are handled. Since Melo left, both Harden and Paul have had to play an additional minute per game, and Harden, in particular, has taken almost two more shots a game, decreasing his FG% by 4%. These two guys should have fresh legs for the playoffs, and seeing Harden lead the league in usage rate once again by a wide margin (6%, to be exact) is not a good start towards making that happen. Their isolation-heavy offense certainly doesn’t help matters either, increasing the pressure on either one of them to blow past their man and create a shot for either themselves, or their teammates.

     The tough thing with Chris Paul is that he is 33 years old, and nobody really knows how much he has left in the tank. He is currently averaging only 15.6 points, 4 rebounds, and 8 assists per game, shooting only 41% from the field. If you compare those numbers to his numbers throughout his career, his points per game are at the lowest they have ever been, his turnovers are up higher than they’ve ever been, and he’s averaging his second-lowest amount of assists per game this year. This is also while playing two more minutes than last year, and the inevitable time that we can’t depend on him to do as much as he used to, may be starting right before our eyes.

     The Rockets have addressed this issue recently, though, signing Austin Rivers to be our fourth guard so that we can give CP some rest. Even if Rivers isn’t the greatest player, if he can hold it down while Paul is out, and we can still win consistently with him playing heavy minutes instead of Paul like we are now, then why not give Paul games off like the second night of a back-to-back? Resting Paul should lead to fresher legs in the playoffs, and less risk of a catastrophic injury. With Harden, I definitely think that his minutes need to be decreased in games that both him and Paul play in. I understand that he needs to play big minutes in games that Paul is out, but I think that the Rockets should look for ways to give him some rest down the stretch as well.

Melo Effect Part 2 - The Young Guys

     Through the national media, and social networks, it was a known fact that Melo was let go because the team wanted to play an undrafted rookie, Gary Clark, over him. This was mainly due to the fact that all we really needed from Melo on offense was catch and shoot 3’s, which Clark could hit at a similar rate, and Clark also offered more youth, upside, and defense. Clark has posted a +0.4 in defensive plus-minus, compared to Melo’s -3.4. Those numbers are deflated because of how terrible the defense has been as a whole, but it just goes to show Clark’s energy and instincts on the defensive side of the ball were both seen and valued by the Rockets organization. Since Melo left, Clark saw his minutes go up from 7 to 21 per game and was playing during those same clutch situations that Melo used to play. Playing these big minutes really helped him get a feel for the game and learn his role in the D’Antoni system. 

     As Clark has faded into a rookie wall and struggled with his shot, though, his minutes have since gone to Danuel House Jr, another young guy who has shown a lot of potential. Since being called up from the G-League in late November, he has made an immediate impact, playing 20.6 minutes per game in the month he has been on the team. House isn’t quite on Clark’s level on the defensive side of the ball, with only a -2.8 defensive plus-minus, but he offers a lot more athleticism, energy, and offensive polish than the other two. House currently leads the team with a +57 overall plus minus which is a direct result of the energy he brings. These two guys have been able to develop nicely by playing important minutes early on in their careers, and I see them as big building blocks for the future with their youth, and potential to be dependable 3-and-D wings once their time comes.

Melo Effect Part 1 - The Experiment

It’s been over 4 years since my last post, but I’m back and here to talk about the Melo effect on the Rockets. 

     Every summer, no matter what, Daryl Morey always finds a way to get us Rockets fans excited for the upcoming season through some type of big-name signing, or trade. If we take it back three years…

• Going into the 2015-2016 season, we traded for Ty Lawson, who was supposed to be the perfect backcourt mate for Harden.
• Going into the 2016-2017 season, we hired Mike D’Antoni who was supposed to transform the offense, and raised many eyebrows when he decided to play Harden at PG.
• Going into last season, we traded for Chris Paul, who was finally supposed to take some of the pressure off Harden after his flameout in Game 6 vs. the Spurs the prior year.

     All three of these acquisitions had Rockets fans giddy for the upcoming season. Going into this year, a year after assembling what was likely the greatest team in franchise history, Morey went out and signed Carmelo Anthony. If you look back at my last post from around 5 years ago, you can tell that I was initially excited about the move. Many analysts around the nation were split on what to think of the signing, but I know that I was at least curious to see what he could bring to the table. I thought that even if his role wasn’t exactly what he wanted, he would still go out and do whatever he could to finally win a ring. Well, the Melo experiment quickly ended after a quick 10 games, in which he averaged 13.8 points, 5.4 rebounds, and only 0.5 assists per game, on 40.5% shooting, and 32.8% from three. After looking at all different types of stats, I believe that Melo’s departure has opened the door for the team to develop younger guys such as Gary Clark and Danuel House, placed a heavier burden on our star players, and improved our shot selection as a team.

Top Three Players the Rockets have Gotten this Offseason and my Thoughts on it

     This offseason, the Rockets have been very active in trying to sign big name free agents like LeBron, Melo, and Chris Bosh. I was bummed out that we didn't get Bosh because he said that if LeBron leaves Miami then he will come to Houston. LeBron signed with the Cavs and Bosh didn't stay true to his word and re signed with the Heat. I was also sad that we had to get rid of Chandler Parsons and Jeremy Lin because they are two of my favorite players.We still got some good new players though. Here are my rankings and thoughts about who we got:
     1. Trevor Ariza. We needed another forward to replace Chandler Parsons and Ariza was the best one available. It's a bummer losing Parsons, but $47 million over 3 years is a little too much for a non all star. Although Parsons is a better overall player,  Ariza plays very similar to Parsons and we got him for one more year and $15 million less, so I think it was a good signing for the Rockets.
    2. Nick Johnson. He was a great draft pick for us. We needed some more depth at guard and he fits perfectly with the Rockets. He is a good shooter, very athletic (as we have seen in the Summer League), and a great defender. I hope he gets to play a lot this season.
     3. Alonzo Gee. We also needed some depth at forward and Gee will be a key role player for the Rockets. He is a great shooter, athletic, and a good rebounder. I think he will be a great fit for the Rockets.
     Overall, since we missed out on all of the big names, we either got a little bit worse or stayed the same. We might not be as good this year, but we have a lot of leftover money to spend in next year's offseason. Hopefully we can be a top 5 team in the west and have a great season. I would also like to say farewell to Jeremy Lin. He has been a great player for the rockets and it was really cool getting to meet him. I hope he does well in LA!

Rockets Playoff Picture

     The Rockets have finished the season with a record of 54-28 and because of that, they have earned the 4th seed in the Western Conference. They will be playing the Blazers in the first round of the playoffs. We were 3-1 against the Blazers this season, so I'm hoping that we can keep winning against them. I
f we win that series than we would most likely be playing the Spurs. We're one of the few teams that can play the Spurs really well because we play at a way faster tempo then them, so we can get easy buckets in transition against them which is a good thing. If we win that, then we would be playing either the Thunder or the Clippers. I would rather them play the Thunder because of how bad we play the Clippers. It would be a very tough series either way. If we somehow win that series, then we would most likely play the Heat or the Pacers. We went 1-1 against both of them, so I actually think we have a higher chance of winning this series than the Thunder/Clippers one.
       Against the Blazers, Lin, Beverley, and Howard will have to play some BIG D. If the Rockets can shut down Damian Lillard and LaMarcus Aldridge, than we can definitely win this series. We cannot just play James Harden basketball and win, we have to play great team basketball to win. I'm hoping that Jeremy Lin can finally play well in the playoffs and stay healthy. The last two years, he's been hurt, so he needs to make up for it by playing very aggresive, not turning the ball over, and play great defense.
      I think that this is finally the year that the Rockets will make a big run in the playoffs. We have all of the pieces, just we have to put it all together.

My Trade Deadline Thoughts

     Once again, Daryl Morrey made a move right before the trade deadline. This time, it wasn't very major. Here are my thoughts about 3 trades on trade deadline day.
     1. Warriors trade Kent Bazemore and Marshon Brooks for Steve Blake from the Lakers. I thought it was a good deal for both teams.  The Warriors needed a backup point guard which they got in Steve Blake and the Lakers needed more help at guard after Kobe Bryant went down, which they got in Kent Bazemore and Marshon Brooks. If I were to give them a letter grade for how smart their deal was, I'd give the Warriors a B and the Lakers a B+.
     2. Pacers trade Danny Granger and a future second round pick for Evan Turner from the 76ers. I thought it was a good deal for the Pacers because they needed more depth at guard, which they got in Evan Turner. The Sixers made a horrible deal in trading for Granger. They ended up buying out his contract because Granger didn't want to play for them and they wanted to save some cap room.  Still, I don't know why they would trade one of their best players for nothing. I would give the Pacers an A- and the 76ers a D.

     3. Rockets trade Aaron Brooks for Jordan Hamilton from the Nuggets. I thought it was a good deal for the Nuggets because Ty Lawson is out and they just traded their backup, so they needed help at point guard. Aaron Brooks is very underrated, so the Nuggets made a good move in trading for him. I thought that it was a good move for the Rockets too. I've been a big Aaron Brooks fan since the first day he put on a Rockets uniform, so I was mad when I heard that we traded him. Jordan Hamilton has put up 12 and 16 points in his first two games with the Rockets, so we'll see if he can keep putting up these type of numbers. I would give both teams a B+.
     It was another interesting trade deadline with lots of interesting trades. Hopefully, Jordan Hamilton turns out to be good for the Rockets.