The Hidden Impact of Capela

     One of the biggest mysteries to me in the basketball world right now, is why Clint Capela never gets the recognition he deserves. I, personally, think that he is the second most important player to the Rockets’ success, and I’m sure many Rockets fans would agree. He has an impact on the game similar to Draymond Green, where not all of his impact shows on the box score, but we are a much better team because of him. The Rockets design their entire defensive scheme around Clint, and with him just getting hurt a week ago, I think it’s a good time to analyze exactly what makes him so valuable to the Rockets on the defensive end.

     Clint Capela is the single reason why the Rockets are able to “switch-everything” on defense. Being able to do this helps negate the pick-and-roll, and forces the opponent into a lot of isolation. This scheme depends on Clint’s ability to switch from a big man setting a screen, to a smaller guard on the perimeter, and guard them both about equally as well. Not every NBA team is able to do this on defense because not every Center can both block shots, and switch onto the perimeter as well as Clint. If you look at his DET factor (the percentage of a player’s season average FGA output per possession that he shot in a specific matchup), 8 of the 10 players that he deterred the FG% of the most, are guards. If you compare that number to other Centers that he is commonly compared to, here is how he stacks up:




     Being 6’11 with a 7’5 wingspan, it is not common that players of that size are able to matchup on guards so well. That is what makes Clint so great. Even when he gets beat, his massive wingspan helps him recover fairly easily and still challenge the shot. He is currently 10th in the NBA with 1.9 blocks per game, and that will only go up as his timing improves. Although, I feel that if we didn’t switch so often and Clint wasn’t guarding on the perimeter as much as he does, that number would be higher. Last year’s playoff series against the Jazz was a perfect display of how well Clint protects the rim for the Rockets (https://youtu.be/LZdk_GN1zsI). It wasn’t all just shots around the rim by Gobert and Favors, he also got a fair amount of blocks when switched onto Donovan Mitchell driving from the perimeter.

     With Capela out of the lineup for another month, and Kenneth Faried filling in for him, the rim protection hasn’t been nearly as good as when Clint was healthy. Faried is only 6’8, and doesn’t offer the same shot-blocking skills. He can defend on the perimeter fairly well, but he is just too undersized to offer the other shot-blocking dimension that Clint does on defense. The combination of those two things makes Clint Capela the second-most important player on the Rockets, and it will be tough to keep playing without him for the next month as the team tries to climb back up in the standings.

The Bucks Beat the Rockets at their Own Game (for now)

     If anything has ever validated the calculations of Daryl Morey, I think the 2018-19 Milwaukee Bucks translating Moreyball analytics to success this year is the best example of how advantageous playing Moreyball can be for a basketball team. Moreyball analytics is a system that the Houston Rockets, under the leadership of Daryl Morey, has been using successfully for a number of years. The basic idea is that they put together players, coaches and a system that focuses on maximizing 3-pointers and shots in the restricted area (layups/dunk), in order to give themselves a mathematical advantage going into every game. During the 2017-18 season, the Rockets led the NBA with these types shots, which accounted for 81% of their shot attempts. This was over 10 percentage points higher than the next closest team and almost 20 percentage points higher than the league average. That season, Rockets had the best record in the NBA and narrowly lost in the Western Conference Finals

     For the past several seasons, the Milwaukee Bucks have been stuck in the middle-of-the-pack, winning about half their games in the regular season and finishing around 7th place in the conference standings. This season has been very different. The Bucks have gone through a huge transformation under new coach, Mike Budenholzer, who has fully embraced the Moreyball philosophy. Under his leadership, the Bucks have gone from a Moreyball shot attempt percentage of 64% (below league average), to the highest ever recorded at 82.1%. Although the season is still young, the results have been dramatic. Through January 20th, 2019, the Bucks are 33-12, have the best record in the NBA, and score the most points per game as a team. They even beat the Rockets in Houston a couple of weeks ago on national TV, showing the world the true power of Moreyball analytics.

     At this point in time, the Rockets have regained the league lead in Moreyball shot attempt percentage, attempting 83%  from Moreyball zones, compared to 80% by the Bucks. This recent surge by the Rockets has fueled a 16-8 record since December 1, led by James Harden's 40+ points per game and more prominent role in the offense.  I hope this trend continues when Chris Paul returns to the lineup.

Melo Effect Part 4 - Shot Selection

     The biggest overall positive for the Rockets as a team since Melo left, is the improvement in shot selection. Carmelo Anthony is known to be one of the greatest mid-range shooters of our generation, but one of the biggest mysteries heading into the season was if he could adjust his shot selection to fit the “Moreyball” philosophies (3’s, layups/duks, free throws). If we take a look at the shot chart for one of Melo’s better games, in which he had 17 points and 7 rebounds, on 57% shooting, you can see that the Rockets took 12 mid-range shots and a lot of little floaters around the basket:

Rockets vs. Bulls Shot Chart

     Even though they won the game, the chart shows that the advantage we once had through Moreyball, was gone. Losing that advantage was one of the biggest reasons, in my opinion, why the Rockets struggled out of the gate. This past couple weeks, the Rockets have started looking like themselves again. They have finally found a rotation that works, and everyone looks comfortable out on the court. The signature moment of their past run has been the game vs the Wizards where they broke the record for most 3-pointers made in a game, with 26. Here is the shot chart from that game: 

Rockets vs. Wizards Shot Chart

     The chart shows that they only took one mid-range shot the entire game, and only one floater around the basket. This is more like what Morey envisioned the chart looking like and getting back to this Moreyball shot selection is one of the biggest reasons why we have been streaking lately. I believe that removing Melo from the equation is the prime reason why we were able to cut out the mid-range shots and gain back our Moreyball advantage through shot selection.

Melo Effect Part 3 - Harden & CP3

     The biggest thing that worries me about Melo’s departure is the higher dependence on Harden and Paul. Seeing Harden flame out in Game 6 against the Spurs two years ago really left a bad taste in my mouth, and marks the exact time and place that I started caring about how the minutes for the star players are handled. Since Melo left, both Harden and Paul have had to play an additional minute per game, and Harden, in particular, has taken almost two more shots a game, decreasing his FG% by 4%. These two guys should have fresh legs for the playoffs, and seeing Harden lead the league in usage rate once again by a wide margin (6%, to be exact) is not a good start towards making that happen. Their isolation-heavy offense certainly doesn’t help matters either, increasing the pressure on either one of them to blow past their man and create a shot for either themselves, or their teammates.

     The tough thing with Chris Paul is that he is 33 years old, and nobody really knows how much he has left in the tank. He is currently averaging only 15.6 points, 4 rebounds, and 8 assists per game, shooting only 41% from the field. If you compare those numbers to his numbers throughout his career, his points per game are at the lowest they have ever been, his turnovers are up higher than they’ve ever been, and he’s averaging his second-lowest amount of assists per game this year. This is also while playing two more minutes than last year, and the inevitable time that we can’t depend on him to do as much as he used to, may be starting right before our eyes.

     The Rockets have addressed this issue recently, though, signing Austin Rivers to be our fourth guard so that we can give CP some rest. Even if Rivers isn’t the greatest player, if he can hold it down while Paul is out, and we can still win consistently with him playing heavy minutes instead of Paul like we are now, then why not give Paul games off like the second night of a back-to-back? Resting Paul should lead to fresher legs in the playoffs, and less risk of a catastrophic injury. With Harden, I definitely think that his minutes need to be decreased in games that both him and Paul play in. I understand that he needs to play big minutes in games that Paul is out, but I think that the Rockets should look for ways to give him some rest down the stretch as well.

Melo Effect Part 2 - The Young Guys

     Through the national media, and social networks, it was a known fact that Melo was let go because the team wanted to play an undrafted rookie, Gary Clark, over him. This was mainly due to the fact that all we really needed from Melo on offense was catch and shoot 3’s, which Clark could hit at a similar rate, and Clark also offered more youth, upside, and defense. Clark has posted a +0.4 in defensive plus-minus, compared to Melo’s -3.4. Those numbers are deflated because of how terrible the defense has been as a whole, but it just goes to show Clark’s energy and instincts on the defensive side of the ball were both seen and valued by the Rockets organization. Since Melo left, Clark saw his minutes go up from 7 to 21 per game and was playing during those same clutch situations that Melo used to play. Playing these big minutes really helped him get a feel for the game and learn his role in the D’Antoni system. 

     As Clark has faded into a rookie wall and struggled with his shot, though, his minutes have since gone to Danuel House Jr, another young guy who has shown a lot of potential. Since being called up from the G-League in late November, he has made an immediate impact, playing 20.6 minutes per game in the month he has been on the team. House isn’t quite on Clark’s level on the defensive side of the ball, with only a -2.8 defensive plus-minus, but he offers a lot more athleticism, energy, and offensive polish than the other two. House currently leads the team with a +57 overall plus minus which is a direct result of the energy he brings. These two guys have been able to develop nicely by playing important minutes early on in their careers, and I see them as big building blocks for the future with their youth, and potential to be dependable 3-and-D wings once their time comes.

Melo Effect Part 1 - The Experiment

It’s been over 4 years since my last post, but I’m back and here to talk about the Melo effect on the Rockets. 

     Every summer, no matter what, Daryl Morey always finds a way to get us Rockets fans excited for the upcoming season through some type of big-name signing, or trade. If we take it back three years…

• Going into the 2015-2016 season, we traded for Ty Lawson, who was supposed to be the perfect backcourt mate for Harden.
• Going into the 2016-2017 season, we hired Mike D’Antoni who was supposed to transform the offense, and raised many eyebrows when he decided to play Harden at PG.
• Going into last season, we traded for Chris Paul, who was finally supposed to take some of the pressure off Harden after his flameout in Game 6 vs. the Spurs the prior year.

     All three of these acquisitions had Rockets fans giddy for the upcoming season. Going into this year, a year after assembling what was likely the greatest team in franchise history, Morey went out and signed Carmelo Anthony. If you look back at my last post from around 5 years ago, you can tell that I was initially excited about the move. Many analysts around the nation were split on what to think of the signing, but I know that I was at least curious to see what he could bring to the table. I thought that even if his role wasn’t exactly what he wanted, he would still go out and do whatever he could to finally win a ring. Well, the Melo experiment quickly ended after a quick 10 games, in which he averaged 13.8 points, 5.4 rebounds, and only 0.5 assists per game, on 40.5% shooting, and 32.8% from three. After looking at all different types of stats, I believe that Melo’s departure has opened the door for the team to develop younger guys such as Gary Clark and Danuel House, placed a heavier burden on our star players, and improved our shot selection as a team.

Top Three Players the Rockets have Gotten this Offseason and my Thoughts on it

     This offseason, the Rockets have been very active in trying to sign big name free agents like LeBron, Melo, and Chris Bosh. I was bummed out that we didn't get Bosh because he said that if LeBron leaves Miami then he will come to Houston. LeBron signed with the Cavs and Bosh didn't stay true to his word and re signed with the Heat. I was also sad that we had to get rid of Chandler Parsons and Jeremy Lin because they are two of my favorite players.We still got some good new players though. Here are my rankings and thoughts about who we got:
     1. Trevor Ariza. We needed another forward to replace Chandler Parsons and Ariza was the best one available. It's a bummer losing Parsons, but $47 million over 3 years is a little too much for a non all star. Although Parsons is a better overall player,  Ariza plays very similar to Parsons and we got him for one more year and $15 million less, so I think it was a good signing for the Rockets.
    2. Nick Johnson. He was a great draft pick for us. We needed some more depth at guard and he fits perfectly with the Rockets. He is a good shooter, very athletic (as we have seen in the Summer League), and a great defender. I hope he gets to play a lot this season.
     3. Alonzo Gee. We also needed some depth at forward and Gee will be a key role player for the Rockets. He is a great shooter, athletic, and a good rebounder. I think he will be a great fit for the Rockets.
     Overall, since we missed out on all of the big names, we either got a little bit worse or stayed the same. We might not be as good this year, but we have a lot of leftover money to spend in next year's offseason. Hopefully we can be a top 5 team in the west and have a great season. I would also like to say farewell to Jeremy Lin. He has been a great player for the rockets and it was really cool getting to meet him. I hope he does well in LA!