The Bucks Beat the Rockets at their Own Game (for now)

     If anything has ever validated the calculations of Daryl Morey, I think the 2018-19 Milwaukee Bucks translating Moreyball analytics to success this year is the best example of how advantageous playing Moreyball can be for a basketball team. Moreyball analytics is a system that the Houston Rockets, under the leadership of Daryl Morey, has been using successfully for a number of years. The basic idea is that they put together players, coaches and a system that focuses on maximizing 3-pointers and shots in the restricted area (layups/dunk), in order to give themselves a mathematical advantage going into every game. During the 2017-18 season, the Rockets led the NBA with these types shots, which accounted for 81% of their shot attempts. This was over 10 percentage points higher than the next closest team and almost 20 percentage points higher than the league average. That season, Rockets had the best record in the NBA and narrowly lost in the Western Conference Finals

     For the past several seasons, the Milwaukee Bucks have been stuck in the middle-of-the-pack, winning about half their games in the regular season and finishing around 7th place in the conference standings. This season has been very different. The Bucks have gone through a huge transformation under new coach, Mike Budenholzer, who has fully embraced the Moreyball philosophy. Under his leadership, the Bucks have gone from a Moreyball shot attempt percentage of 64% (below league average), to the highest ever recorded at 82.1%. Although the season is still young, the results have been dramatic. Through January 20th, 2019, the Bucks are 33-12, have the best record in the NBA, and score the most points per game as a team. They even beat the Rockets in Houston a couple of weeks ago on national TV, showing the world the true power of Moreyball analytics.

     At this point in time, the Rockets have regained the league lead in Moreyball shot attempt percentage, attempting 83%  from Moreyball zones, compared to 80% by the Bucks. This recent surge by the Rockets has fueled a 16-8 record since December 1, led by James Harden's 40+ points per game and more prominent role in the offense.  I hope this trend continues when Chris Paul returns to the lineup.